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Tesla: Expanding Auto Segments, Margins, and Multiples
Investors increasingly view the market as a bifurcation with long duration, hyper growth, and meme stocks on one end, and high quality and…

November 2021

WeWork: A Strongly Profitable Business That Just Needs the Bananas to Ripen
Summary While obscured by a tarnished reputation and suppressed pandemic-related occupancy rates, WeWork is a highly-profitable leader in a fast-growing…
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My Substack Introduction
What I'm doing here

May 2020

The Case for Beating the Market, Part 1
Why I have an active investing approach despite the conventional wisdom

December 2019

Biogen: Aducanumab Questions Linger After CTAD, but Trading Opportunities Exist
Summary On Thursday, Biogen presented additional aducanumab data at CTAD that answered some questions, and raised others Bulls believe the totality of…

November 2019

Amarin: Low Compliance and Competition Key to Bear Thesis, but Bulls Don't See the Threat
Summary In this note, I detail some common elements of the bear thesis, as well as the counterarguments to this thesis. Low compliance serves as a risk…
Peloton: Creating a New Fitness Category, or the Next Fitness Fad?
Summary Is Peloton the next short-lived fitness fad? Peloton has a lasting product with the engagement of a live class and the convenience of a home…

October 2019

Reata: A "Show Me" Story Showing the Results and with Two Upcoming Catalysts
Strong omaveloxolone results in FA was a surprise and could generate $1B+ in sales. Importantly, their Nrf2 activators could potentially treat many…
Zillow: Digitizing the Home Buying Experience
Summary Zillow, Redfin, and Opendoor are all looking to improve the archaic buying experience in real estate through iBuying and offering adjacent…

April 2019

Tesla: Story Still Hinges on Demand after Autonomy Day and 1Q Results
My last post on Tesla was just before two major events - Tesla's Autonomy Investor Day, and Tesla's 1Q earnings results. Here are my thoughts following…
Tesla: 1Q Issues Reduce Demand Visibility, but Long-Term Demand Still Appears Healthy
- Tesla saw 1Q deliveries fall short of expectations, leading to demand concerns. The key question is whether this is a temporary blip or an ongoing…

March 2019

Gilead: What Will Provide the Growth Needed for Multiple Expansion?
- In order to outperform, Gilead will need to generate higher revenue growth going forward - HIV franchise sales will depend on Gilead’s ability to…
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